A Theory of Change is a clear explanation of how your organisation’s work is expected to lead to meaningful change.
Why it matters
A useful Theory of Change sets out what you want to achieve, what you will do, what changes you expect to see and how you will know whether you are making progress.
It can help your organisation to:
Your Theory of Change should not be a document that is written once and forgotten.
Review it regularly so it reflects your strategic goals, what you are learning and the changing needs of the communities you support.
This flow shows how the resources you use and activities you deliver can lead to outcomes and longer-term impact.
These terms are often confused, but they describe two different parts of your work.
Outputs are the direct, countable things your organisation produces. They show activity – such as the number of sessions held, people supported, resources distributed or events delivered – but not necessarily the difference that activity makes.
Examples
Outcomes are the changes experienced by the people or communities you support, showing the value created by your work. Short-term outcomes happen soon after the activity, while medium or long-term outcomes take longer to develop.
Examples
Start with the change you want to see, then work backwards to the activities and evidence that will help you get there.
What is the big change you want to see?
What problem are you trying to address?
What will be different if your organisation succeeds?
Example: Young people in our community have improved mental wellbeing.
What needs to happen before you reach your long-term goal?
What will change for the people you support?
What knowledge, skills, confidence or behaviours may improve?
Example: Young people feel less isolated and develop useful coping skills.
What actions will your organisation take to support those changes?
Services and programmes.
Events, activities and resources.
One-to-one or group support.
Example: Weekly peer support groups and one-to-one mentoring.
Choose simple, meaningful measures that tell you whether progress is being made.
Outputs show what you have delivered.
Outcome measures show what has changed.
Only collect information you are likely to use.
Example: Number of sessions delivered, attendance and changes in reported wellbeing.
Think about what needs to be true for your approach to work.
Are there risks or external factors?
What might prevent people from engaging?
Which partners, resources or conditions are important?
Example: Young people need to feel safe and able to attend regularly.
Build regular reviews into your approach so the plan develops with your work.
Are you achieving the outcomes you expected?
What is your information telling you?
What feedback are you hearing?
What needs to change?
Remember: A Theory of Change is a living tool, not a finished document.
This simple framework can help you prioritise activities when time and resources are limited.
Do these first. These are your quick wins and may offer the best use of limited resources.
Plan these carefully. They may be worthwhile but need time, capacity and clear ownership.
Consider whether they are useful. They may suit work that supports another priority.
Avoid or rethink. Look for a simpler way to achieve the same goal.
Your plan becomes more valuable when it is discussed, challenged and updated regularly.
You are ready for the next guide when your organisation can answer these questions with confidence.
We know the long-term change we want to contribute towards.
We understand the difference between outputs and outcomes.
We have identified the activities that should lead to change.
We know which outcomes are most important to us.
We have considered assumptions, risks and external factors.
We have agreed when and how the Theory of Change will be reviewed.
Use the downloadable worksheets to build your Theory of Change, map your impact pathway and prioritise the activities that matter most.
Collect useful data
