Understand your purpose
Clarify the change you want to create.
impact
of the change you want to make
and how your work can help
make it happen.
Clarify how change happens
What is a Theory of Change?
A Theory of Change is a clear explanation of how your organisation’s work is expected to lead to meaningful change.
Why it matters
A useful Theory of Change sets out what you want to achieve, what you will do, what changes you expect to see and how you will know whether you are making progress.
It can help your organisation to:
- stay focused on its purpose and intended impact
- show funders and partners why the work matters
- make better decisions about time and resources
- learn what works and what needs to change.
Keep it alive
Your Theory of Change should not be a document that is written once and forgotten.
Review it regularly so it reflects your strategic goals, what you are learning and the changing needs of the communities you support.
A quick overview
Your simplified Theory of Change
This flow shows how the resources you use and activities you deliver can lead to outcomes and longer-term impact.
Jargon buster
Outputs and outcomes explained
These terms are often confused, but they describe two different parts of your work.
Outputs
Outputs are the direct, countable things your organisation produces. They show activity – such as the number of sessions held, people supported, resources distributed or events delivered – but not necessarily the difference that activity makes.
Examples
- 50 training sessions delivered
- 120 people attended workshops
- 300 food parcels distributed
Outcomes
Outcomes are the changes experienced by the people or communities you support, showing the value created by your work. Short-term outcomes happen soon after the activity, while medium or long-term outcomes take longer to develop.
Examples
- people feel more confident
- participants gain new skills
- families experience improved wellbeing
Build your Theory of Change
Six simple steps
Start with the change you want to see, then work backwards to the activities and evidence that will help you get there.
Define your long-term goal
What is the big change you want to see?
What problem are you trying to address?
What will be different if your organisation succeeds?
Example: Young people in our community have improved mental wellbeing.
Identify the changes along the way
What needs to happen before you reach your long-term goal?
What will change for the people you support?
What knowledge, skills, confidence or behaviours may improve?
Example: Young people feel less isolated and develop useful coping skills.
Plan what you will do
What actions will your organisation take to support those changes?
Services and programmes.
Events, activities and resources.
One-to-one or group support.
Example: Weekly peer support groups and one-to-one mentoring.
Decide what to measure
Choose simple, meaningful measures that tell you whether progress is being made.
Outputs show what you have delivered.
Outcome measures show what has changed.
Only collect information you are likely to use.
Example: Number of sessions delivered, attendance and changes in reported wellbeing.
Check your assumptions
Think about what needs to be true for your approach to work.
Are there risks or external factors?
What might prevent people from engaging?
Which partners, resources or conditions are important?
Example: Young people need to feel safe and able to attend regularly.
Review and improve
Build regular reviews into your approach so the plan develops with your work.
Are you achieving the outcomes you expected?
What is your information telling you?
What feedback are you hearing?
What needs to change?
Remember: A Theory of Change is a living tool, not a finished document.
Focus your effort
Use an Impact versus Effort matrix
This simple framework can help you prioritise activities when time and resources are limited.
High impact, low effort
Do these first. These are your quick wins and may offer the best use of limited resources.
High impact, high effort
Plan these carefully. They may be worthwhile but need time, capacity and clear ownership.
Low impact, low effort
Consider whether they are useful. They may suit work that supports another priority.
Low impact, high effort
Avoid or rethink. Look for a simpler way to achieve the same goal.
Keep learning
Review and improve your Theory of Change
Your plan becomes more valuable when it is discussed, challenged and updated regularly.
Questions to ask
- Are we seeing the changes we expected?
- Which activities appear to be working best?
- What feedback are people giving us?
- Have circumstances or community needs changed?
Use what you learn to
- improve services and activities
- update strategy and priorities
- communicate impact more clearly
- decide what to measure next.
Before you move on
Plan your impact checklist
You are ready for the next guide when your organisation can answer these questions with confidence.
We know the long-term change we want to contribute towards.
We understand the difference between outputs and outcomes.
We have identified the activities that should lead to change.
We know which outcomes are most important to us.
We have considered assumptions, risks and external factors.
We have agreed when and how the Theory of Change will be reviewed.
Put your plan into practice
Use the downloadable worksheets to build your Theory of Change, map your impact pathway and prioritise the activities that matter most.
Next guide
Collect useful data
